If the Iranian Regime Falls, Will Putin Lose Central Asia?

News:

On 27 April, the Vedomosti news agency reported: “Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi expressed his gratitude to Russia and President Vladimir Putin for their support of the republic during a meeting in St Petersburg.

Putin met with Arakchi in St Petersburg on 27 April. The Russian side was represented at the meeting by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov and Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff Igor Kostyukov. Accompanying Arakchi at the meeting were Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib-Abadi and Ambassador to Moscow Kazem Dzhalali.

Putin emphasized that Russia would support Iran and do everything in its power to ensure that peace is restored to the region as soon as possible. The President also mentioned that he had received a message from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and wished him well”.

Comment:

After Abbas Arakchi declined to meet with US officials in Pakistan, Trump, in order to avoid further embarrassment announced with his characteristic arrogance, that he was cancelling his officials’ trip to Pakistan, saying that if Iran wanted to talk, they could simply “give us a call”.

Since the start of the military aggression by the US and the Jewish formation against Iran, the country’s authorities have demonstrated their resolve and refusal to bow to American demands. Iran continues to pursue an independent foreign policy based on its own interests. Its relations with Russia and China serve as an example of this.

Immediately after leaving Pakistan, Arakchi visited Russia, and later travelled to China. Both Russia and China understand what would happen if the US were to bring about a change of government in Iran and install a government under its control. That is why both countries are doing everything they can to help preserve the current regime in Iran.

Unlike China, Russia finds itself in a difficult position. On the one hand, there is Putin’s tacit agreement with Trump regarding the fate of Ukraine. Since Trump took office, we have seen time and again how Putin has made concessions to American interests on many issues, in the hope of resolving the war in Russia’s favour. But to this day, the Ukraine issue remains unresolved, and Putin is waiting for the promised victory. And if Putin now supports Iran against American interests, then he will never see the victory in Ukraine that Trump promised him.

On the other hand, Putin could lose Central Asia. The Middle East is dotted with American military bases. The exceptions are Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia. In the US ‘Greater Middle East’ project, a specific role is assigned to Pakistan, Afghanistan and all the countries of Central Asia.

The fall of the Iranian regime will serve as a springboard for the US to launch a military invasion of the region. First, the US will establish military bases on Iranian territory, then it will begin to advance deeper into the region, spreading chaos and violence until it reaches the Central Asian countries. At that point, Putin will finally lose control over the Central Asian countries, whilst the US will continue its colonial expansion and subsequently turn its attention to China.

Does Putin understand this? It is unlikely. Any state wishing to influence world politics and shape it in its own interests must pose a genuine threat to the interests of the leading power on the international stage, rather than ensuring its security and furthering its interests by providing assistance—which is precisely what Russia is doing with regard to the US. The whole world knows what ‘American guarantees’ are worth, and there are no guarantees whatsoever. For the leading state pursues only its own interests and pays no heed to states beneath it.

Muslims! America’s desire to change the regime in Iran is not aimed at establishing peace and order in the region, and certainly not at providing assistance to Muslims in establishing Islamic rule. Russia’s aid to Iran is not in the interests of Muslims, but only in the interests of Russia. If European powers were to intervene in the region, they wouldn’t be of any help either to Islam or Muslims. The Iranian regime itself clings to its national ideology and opposes Islam or Muslims in the region.

Today, one country, represented by the Iranian regime, has shown that it is possible to stand up to the world’s leading power, the United States. In doing so, it has dispelled the myth that it is impossible to oppose the United States. Even the large number of American agents in the region did nothing to help Trump defeat Iran. The Almighty Allah shows to Muslims today more than ever that it’s all up to us, and we need to take action ourselves to establish the second righteous state of the Khilafah (Caliphate). And may Allah (swt) help us!

Allah Almighty said in His Noble Book:

[إِنَّ اللَّهَ لاَ يُغَيِّرُ مَا بِقَوْمٍ حَتَّى يُغَيِّرُوا مَا بِأَنفُسِهِمْ] “Indeed, Allah would never change a people’s state until they change their own state” [13:11].

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Eldar Khamzin
Member of the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir