The Possibility and Difficulties of European Independence
(Translated)

Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 566 - 24/09/2025 CE
By: Ustadh Asaad Mansour

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a State of Union address before the European Parliament in the French city of Strasbourg on 10 September 2025, “Battlelines for a new world order based on power are being drawn right now. So, yes, Europe must fight. For its place in a world in which many major powers are either ambivalent or openly hostile to Europe… This must be Europe’s Independence Moment… And there is no doubt: Europe’s eastern flank keeps all of Europe safe. From the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. This is why we must invest in supporting it through an Eastern Flank Watch… Europe will defend every inch of its territory.”

These statements come after Von Der Leyen proposed on 19 March 2025 the “White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030,” outlining a project for defending Europe. The report states, “Based on projections of gradual take-up, defence investment could reach at least EUR 800bn over the next four years, including the expenditure financed by the EUR 150bn from SAFE, which will be automatically eligible under the national escape clauses.” (Page 16). It warns, “Russia poses a major strategic threat on the battlefield. It has forced Europe and our partners to confront the reality of major mechanised high-intensity war on the European continent on a scale not seen since 1945.” (Page 4). It also calls for, “The provision of large-calibre artillery ammunition with a minimum objective of 2 million rounds per year. There is a critical, short term requirement to fully fund ammunition deliveries to Ukraine throughout 2025, including through incentivised donations from stocks and procurement.” (Page 10).

These statements and stances came after the United States announced that it would abandon its security commitments toward Europe. So, Europe began to think about developing its military industry, and working on its independence from the United States. Europe is trying to strengthen its relations with China to enhance its independence, and understanding with Russia, but America is working to prevent that. 

For this reason, French President Macron, along with Von Der Leyen, visited China in April 2023, so American leaders attacked him at that time, saying that he is groveling to China, and that his visit undermines American efforts aimed at containing China’s influence. Macron responded to them in defense of his position and the Europeans' position, rejecting subservience to America, saying, “Being an ally does not mean being a vassal … [or] mean that we don’t have the right to think for ourselves.”

However, achieving this independence is not easy. The volume of trade exchange between Europe and America, which amounts to 1.2 trillion dollars annually, equals four times its volume with China, besides American investments, whether financial or projects in Europe, amounting to about 2.3 trillion dollars. So, America’s economic dominance over Europe has made it infiltrate economic, political, and media circles. So, it is not easy to get rid of this dominance.

Likewise, America deploys in Europe and its coasts about 100 thousand soldiers, 150 warplanes, 140 ships, 3 bases for storing nuclear weapons, and 100 nuclear missiles. Europe has been linked to America and relied on it for defense since World War II. Therefore, it has not been able to establish a common defense policy and an independent army despite its attempts, and NATO remains the common defense policy until now. However, it has become at risk, because America is not prepared to defend Europe, and its slogan is “America First" , and the war in Ukraine is evidence of that.

If a NATO member state is attacked and America does not defend it, the alliance is threatened with collapse. On 7 November 2019, Macron stated in an interview with the Economist “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,” whilst asserting that trust in NATO is not high.

So Europe cannot currently, in the circumstances of war with Russia, dispense with all of that so quickly, and this requires a longer time than four years. Its union includes 27 countries that are not homogeneous, whilst some of them are conflicting. Every country primarily pursues its own interests and adheres to its nationalism. The European Union comes third, and it has its own internal, economic, and political problems. It is unwilling to pay more for defense. Even countries with a financial surplus, such as Norway, are unwilling to do so. Selfishness controls every country because they are capitalists who make benefit the basis of their thinking and the measure of their actions.

All of that prevents the unity of its decision and thus its independence at the present time, which makes America deal individually with each of its countries, either by tempting it, deceiving it, or threatening it. There are in every one of its countries extreme nationalist parties against its union and seeking independence from it, and America encourages them. For this reason, Italy, under the leadership of the right-wing parties coalition headed by Meloni, stands against breaking away from America and quarrels mainly with France, and similarly Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Germany has drawn up a new security strategy for itself in 2022, allocating 100 billion euros to develop its military industry. Indeed, it has recently begun supporting arms manufacturing companies and urging them to develop quality weapons. It is also contacting all civilian factories to prepare them for the manufacture of military products. It is also seeking to impose compulsory military conscription on young people, and is working to reduce humanitarian aid to increase the War budget. In August 2024, it announced the establishment of the first permanent military base with approximately 4,800 soldiers and 2,000 military vehicles in Lithuania to confront Russia, which threatens the Baltic states.

So the circumstances force Europe to rely on itself, strengthen its power, and seek to unify and achieve its independence. However, overcoming these challenges that we mentioned is not easy, and not in a short period, and perhaps it will be achieved in the medium term more than four years.

It happened that the Europeans united against the external force that threatens them, as happened in their confrontation of the Islamic conquests during the era of the Ottoman Caliphate. They united against the Soviet Union, but America controlled them, imposed its leadership on them, and made them need it. Hence, their seeking help from America was political suicide, so they became victims, and have not been able to get rid of it until today. By unity, we do not mean that they become one state, and this is unlikely, for their union is fragile.

However, unity means confronting the external force that currently threatens them all, such as Russia. It also means relying on Germany and France, the two major military and economic powers within the union, and externally, supported by Britain, which is forced to do so in order to confront Russia and America. However, this is fraught with risks, as these three European powers, Britain, France and Germany do not submit to each other, and each of them attempts to exploit the circumstances to dominate the scene. Their unity thus carries within it the seeds of competition and conflict in the future, especially after the external force is defeated or its threat is eliminated.

It is incumbent upon the politically aware who are working to establish the Khilafah (Caliphate) to monitor the international scenario and note the contradictions in the stances between the Western allies, and work to benefit from them, so that they can repel their evil from the Ummah and be able to establish their state, a state of goodness and guidance, and then carry Islam to the Europeans and others.