بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
What is Behind Ukraine's Escalation and Provocation towards Russia
The President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, said to American Fox News: "Russia launched an aggressive war against his country when its border guards stopped Ukrainian warships in the Strait of Kerch, which links the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov." After highlighting that incident he added, "Mr. Putin, this is the act of aggression. Mr. Putin, this is the war. And this is not a joke, and not an incident, and not a crisis," (Arabic.Sputniknews, 12/12/2018). Russia has announced that the Russian Coast Guard detained three Ukrainian warships on 25/11/2018 claiming that they violated Russian waters near the Strait of Kerch between the two seas; the Black and Azov east of the Crimea, following that, it called on the United States to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, but Europe rejected it. There is still tension between the parties. Who is behind this happening? Why did tensions re-start there once again?
We will review the events that have taken place and still are taking place there on this subject to find the answer, Allah willing:
1- In February 2014, Russia, America and Europe agreed that former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych would remain in power, he is loyal to Russia. However, once the agreement was reached, riots broke out and turned into armed actions as a result Yanukovych was forced to flee to Russia. It turned out that the West was behind these events ... Russia realized that the West had deceived it and it lost Ukraine. It therefore declared the annexation of Crimea to Russia, and instigated its followers in Donbass, eastern Ukraine, to declare the independence of their regions as the Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Subsequently, America and Europe put sanctions on Russia and removed it from the G-7 summit countries.
2- America called for the arming of Ukraine, but Europe rejected it, because it is aware that this armament will create tension with Russia and when heated it will reflect on Europe... So France and Germany contacted Russia to defuse tension and to find a political solution. They signed the Minsk Agreement on 6/2/2015 between the three countries and excluded America. We have referred to this in the answer to a question dated 21/2/2015 where we stated: “Europe (France and Germany) feared that this heated developments in America's positions will lead to the escalation of Russian military action against Ukraine, it will be embarrassing to Europe if it does not stand on Ukraine's side, which will result in war or quasi-war in Europe but will not affect America. This is why it was a compelling reason for Europe to change its policy that agrees with America in Ukraine, who decided to contact the Russian President to reach a political solution, and halt any heated escalation between Europe and Russia, and this is what took place. European (French and German) leaders have discussed this and agreed upon it on 06/02/2015. Merkel then went to Washington on 08/02/2015 to inform Obama about it and not to ask his permission... and it was clear that Europe for the first time took control over an issue before getting a green light from America. The implementation paper was approved and decided on by the three leaders Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, and French President Francois Hollande on Friday, 06/02/2015, what is only left is to summon the Ukrainians parties "the president and the rebels" to sign it, then Merkel went to Washington to inform Obama!”
3- This act did not appeal to America, although it later declared its support for the agreement ostensibly, but not for its application, but for emptying it of its content and working to abort it. We have mentioned in the answer to the same question: “The French and German position impacted Obama and his administration greatly, it lead to the verbal altercations at the Munich conference between Kerry and Merkel, especially about America's statements to provide Ukraine with weapons which Europe rejects.” We added: “As for the expectations, it is likely that America will find many problems to stall its implementation (the agreement), it has followers in Ukraine, although the President of the Republic Poroshenko is close to Europe but he is also close to America... and it can exacerbate the situation with one of three things or with all three:
- Providing advanced weapons to Ukraine.
- Or hold talks with it for its inclusion in NATO.
- Or by moving some of its men in Ukraine.
And through this it can counter the agreement, because each one of these three provoke Russia and affect events, and lead to its failure.” This is the end of the quote...
And this is what is happening; America is working on the failure of the agreement and making the situation tense...
4- And from here came the recent events, when Russia detained three Ukrainian warships with its sailors ... It appears that Ukraine provoked Russia ... and it dares not to take this step unless with a green light from America, the Russian TASS agency reported on 25/11/2018 that “Three Ukrainian warships entered Russian territorial waters illegally and it was engaged in dangerous maneuvers.” As a result, Ukraine called on the West to intervene. "Germany is one of our closest allies, and we hope that NATO countries are ready to send ships to the Azov Sea to help Ukraine and ensure security there,"Ukrainian President Pietro Porchenko told the German newspaper Bild on 29/11/2018. "Putin does not want anything but to occupy the Azov Sea. The only language he understands is the unity of the Western world ... Germany also has to ask what will Putin do next if we do not stop him ... We can not accept this aggressive policy of Russia: first the Crimean peninsula and then east of Ukraine and now Putin wants the Azov Sea Putin wants the return of the old Russian empire: Crimea, the Donbass, he wants the whole country.”
“Merkel saved our country in 2015 through her negotiations in Minsk, so we hope to get protection again by the alliance of others with us.” But Germany refused military action. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: "There is no military solution to these confrontations ..." (DPA 29/11/2018) and asked Poroshenko to be "balanced" and requested that "the situation remains calm ... and put the facts on the table and see what happens ... "and she vowed to discuss the matter with Putin in Argentina. She refused to increase sanctions on Russia. "Berlin does not expect EU sanctions against Russia because of its conflict with Ukraine as long as efforts to stop the escalation continuing," German Foreign Minister Heiku Maas said after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Pavlo Klimkin in Italy at a conference of EU foreign ministers on 6/12/2018. He added: "At the moment I think it would be wrong to talk about new sanctions because efforts are being made to reduce tension ...
There will be no proposal from the German side for new sanctions ... I do not expect a consensus within the EU to impose new sanctions," (Reuters 7/12/2018). Germany and many other European countries are aware of the seriousness of this situation and its harm to Europe, thus it does not want military actions and does not want to tighten sanctions, because that is a double-edged sword for Russia and Europe.
5- The American position is clear that it is with the tensions and tightening of sanctions. Trump canceled his meeting with his Russian counterpart Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina on 30/11/2018 because of his administration's dissatisfaction with the detention of Ukrainian ships. Trump told reporters before a meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires, regarding the detention of the Ukrainian ships by Russia: "We do not like what happened and we are not happy about it and no body is" (RT Online, November 30, 2018 - Novosti). The US envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, said on 27/11/2018: "The Russian leadership seeks to impose unilateral control over those ports, including Mariupol without anyone accessing them ... The attempt by Russia to control, itself raises great concern, and he stressed that Russia should abide by the 2003 Convention on Navigation in the Sea of Azov ... He does not believe that Russia will launch a new ground offensive on Ukrainian territory, if such an event takes place it will be of great surprise to him...” (Ukraine Page, Al-Arabiya 28/11/2018).
This agreement confirms that the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait are internal waters of Russia and Ukraine. VOA radio reported on 6/12/2018 US that: “Special envoy Kurt Volker will pay a visit to Ukraine over the next two weeks and demand that Russia release the Ukrainian sailors held in its custody and confirmed that Russia should return to cooperate with Ukraine in the Strait of Kerch and the Azov Sea based on the special bilateral agreement on that signed in 2003.” As is clear from the statement, America is not moving fast, it is not in a hurry, its Special Envoy to Ukraine announced that he will visit Ukraine after two weeks! Which means that he is not interested in resolving the situation, but rather keep the situation tense, and continue the tensions and not solve the problem!
6- It is worth mentioning that America supplies the Ukraine with arms and equipment and trains its army. The US envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volcker, told the German website Deutsche Welle on November 29, 2018 that "Kiev and Washington are linked by normal cooperation in the defence sector ... and that his country is helping Ukraine in an organizational way and in reform of the armed forces with a view to enabling the Ukrainian state to have strong modern defence capabilities." The US official admits that his country is arming Ukraine.
Russia Today website mentioned, on a date prior to 9/6/2018: "The United States sent four aircraft to the airport of the city of Lvov in western Ukraine to provide its strategic bombers with fuel in the framework of cooperation with the Atlantic partners to ensure the security of Eastern Europe, according to Washington, and arrived with aircraft 150 Americans US crew members and aircraft maintenance. It quoted the US Air Force press office in Europe and Africa as saying that: "The aim of this step is to achieve more US security in Eastern Europe and more military cooperation between NATO members and its partners." The Russian newspaper added: “America’s and Ukraine co-operation is steadily increasing since the coup against the Ukrainian government in 2014, Ukraine began to receive American armour, unmanned aircraft, radars, equipment, heavy sniper rifles and anti-tank systems, the Americans put the condition that they must not be used in Donbass". It is apparent that America is working to strain the situation by arming Ukraine and is encouraging it to provoke Russia; therefore the latter is forced to respond. This is what America wants to keep the situation tense, and then it moves the Crimea and Ukraine issues in accordance with its interests ... We recall what we said in the answer to question 22/3/2014 after Russia announced on 18/3/2014 the Crimea annexation, which was part of Ukraine, we stated, “Ukraine will remain a time bomb waiting to explode when the international and regional conditions change either in favor of Russia or the West, then each party will attempt to take the whole of Ukraine in accordance with the international circumstances at the time ... Ukraine is the waist line of Russia, at the same time a gateway to Europe.”
7- America is secretly pushing Ukraine to provoke Russia, by moving it to regain its right in the Crimea and extend its authority over its eastern section under Russian influence and to defend its rights in the Azov Sea and in the Kerch Strait, which is a very important strategic strait for the two countries. It is the only passage from the Azov Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south ... It is arming it, and this is violating the Minsk Agreement. And so America is working to bring down this European-Russian agreement, as well as to increase tension ... while Europe is working to defuse the tension, because that is directed against it, and therefore we see that Europe is working on understanding with Russia while working to liberate from the American hegemony over it. The calls for the European Union building an independent army to protect it from Russia and America are growing ... America’s anger over this is apparent like what took place at the meeting of French President Macron with his American counterpart Trump in Paris on 9/11/2018, as well as the declaration of war and trade was aimed at Europe, and America’s public call to dismantle the European Union, and the discontent and dissonance between the Europeans and the American in the NATO meetings in the G-7 summit meetings this year and last year, and the attempts of the Europeans to challenge America in some issues, including Ukraine ... All this made America to increase the tension of the situation between Ukraine and Russia on the border of Europe.
8- Russia is in a difficult situation. It is in trouble with regards to the Ukraine, which it considers a fateful issue to it. If it loses it, it will be exposed to the West, and its capital, Moscow, will be threatened, especially after losing Eastern Europe, which was its strategic depth to defend itself. It has been deceived by the West and America in particular, many times, by accepting the fall of the Berlin Wall, the handing over of East Germany to West Germany, the relinquishment of Poland, the acceptance of its independence and the independence of the Eastern European countries. And now it is being tricked again in Ukraine! After agreeing with them in 2014 on the survival of its agent Yanukovych, the West moved Ukrainians to topple him. Then the trick in Syria! America has deceived Russia by pushing it to fight on its behalf and without it in Syria, so Russia thought that America will keep silent over its annexing of the Crimea and its control over eastern Ukraine, this was without taking any American recognition of its control over these areas! If Russia had not been stupid, it would not have intervened in Syria and it would have let America be implicated in the war and remain stuck in it as it is in Afghanistan.
9- In Conclusion:
a- The indicators of events show that America is not far from being the motive behind the movement of Ukrainian ships towards the Azov Sea without coordination with Russia ... And that the United States aims are to strain the situation to exploit it to serve its interests towards the three entities: Russia, Europe and Ukraine ... America wants to "strain the situation" and not solve the problem, so that it remains in place and the tension continues!
b- This world, as long as it is controlled by these secular capitalist states, will remain the scene of malignant plots, brutal crimes and the spread of injustice in all its forms ... The concepts of colonialism are deeply-rooted in those countries, and manifest wherever they go.
c- The great ideology of Islam is the only one that saves the world from the evils of those countries and their man-made ideologies. This is because Islam is revealed by the Creator of man, and the Creator is the only one who knows what is good for His creatures
(أَلَا يَعْلَمُ مَنْ خَلَقَ وَهُوَ اللَّطِيفُ الْخَبِيرُ)
“Does He who created not know, while He is the Subtle, the Acquainted?” [Al-Mulk: 14] This is the Truth that establishes justice and spreads Good
(فَمَاذَا بَعْدَ الْحَقِّ إِلَّا الضَّلَالُ) “And what can be beyond truth except error?” [Yunus: 32]
(إِنَّ فِي ذَلِكَ لَذِكْرَى لِمَنْ كَانَ لَهُ قَلْبٌ أَوْ أَلْقَى السَّمْعَ وَهُوَ شَهِيدٌ)
“Indeed in that is a reminder for whoever has a heart or who listens while he is present [in mind]” [Qaf: 37]
7 Rabii’ Al-Akhar 1440 AH
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