بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
When the Price of an Oil Barrel Exceeds $130: Whoever Controls the Oil Arteries Controls the Decision
(Translated)
In a world where energy flows as vitally as the blood flows through a body, oil is not a commodity measured in barrels. Instead, it is a hidden artery that keeps the global economy alive or pushes it toward collapse. When the price of a barrel jumps to the threshold of $130 and above, the question is no longer: Who owns the oil? It becomes: Who has the power to transport it?
Here, geography becomes determinant, and sea and land routes become silent theaters of a fierce international struggle, where interests intersect, the balance of power is tested, and influence is redrawn to the rhythm of oil tankers. At that point, rising prices are not merely a reflection of a passing economic crisis, but an expression of a deeper imbalance in the global supply system, where the transport of oil itself becomes a crisis in its own right, where politics intertwines with security, and economics with the military. Hence, the most pressing question arises: Who benefits from this suffocation? How can the world resolve this without sliding into open confrontation?
The rise in oil prices is not merely an economic indicator. Instead, it is a sign of a broad shift in the global political economy, which we will explain as follows:
First: The global economy is under pressure: Such a surge in energy prices means a rise in the cost of almost everything. Transportation costs, whether by land, sea, and air freight, increase, as do the prices of industrial production across all sectors, and food prices due to higher transportation and fertilizer costs. This erodes purchasing power and drives up global inflation rates, pushing the world into a very dangerous phase: near-total or complete recession.
Second: Oil importing countries in crisis: Countries that rely on energy imports will face increased trade deficits and pressure on their local currencies. This will lead to higher debt and increased taxes for their citizens, meaning we are on the verge of a potential cost-of-living crisis in these countries.
Third: Oil exporting countries are recovering, but cautiously: Exporting countries such as the Gulf States, Russia, some African countries, and the United States, among others, are benefiting, generating huge revenues, bolstering their reserves, and expanding their spending. However, their imports could be negatively impacted if the price surge continues for an extended period, as the world seeks alternatives, posing a future threat. Furthermore, a portion of these revenues is being consumed by transportation costs for those lacking access to transit routes.
Fourth: The shift towards alternative energy is accelerating: When prices rise to this extent, solar and wind power become more economically attractive, electric vehicle projects are gaining momentum, and discussions about nuclear energy are resurfacing strongly.
Fifth: Political and geopolitical tensions: We are witnessing these tensions today, even with oil prices still around $100 per barrel. What will happen if it rises above $130? Wars or conflicts may erupt in production areas and oil transit routes, and we may see disagreements or splits within oil alliances such as OPEC+ and others, accompanied by disruptions in supply chains. This is what is driving major powers, especially the United States, to escalate the conflict between major powers. They have already begun politically and militarily intervening in regions such as Venezuela and Iran, and others are likely to follow, while attempting to reshape international alliances according to their interests.
Sixth: Financial markets are volatile. Stock markets in general, and those of industrials in particular, may decline, while energy stocks rise with increasing prices. This also pushes central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation, reflecting fundamental changes in the policies of major financial institutions. This is evident in the appointment of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, as Warsh has vowed to implement fundamental changes in the Federal Reserve's operations.
With oil prices exceeding $130, this signals a period of global economic tension that could lead to a redistribution of power among nations, put pressure on populations, and push the world toward a shift in the energy landscape and the balance of power.
Returning to the question: Who benefits from this crisis? The beneficiaries are exporting countries and major energy companies, which are reaping record profits and greater market influence. The United States is a double beneficiary; despite being a major consumer, it is also one of the largest producers of high-cost shale oil, which becomes profitable with rising prices, in addition to using energy as a tool of political influence. The alternative energy sector also benefits, including solar and wind energy companies, electric car manufacturers like Tesla, and countries that have been quick to invest in alternatives, such as China, and even Germany, despite its own crises.
The losers, however, are the rest of the world, particularly the poor and middle classes within them, who are significantly affected, potentially opening the door to widespread unrest.
As for the second question: How can the world resolve this crisis without open confrontation? The solution will not be a one-size-fits-all approach, but rather a series of transformations:
- Electrification of cars, buses, and expanding the charging infrastructure.
- Promoting public transportation over private vehicles and reducing reliance on them.
- Alternative fuels such as hydrogen, especially for trucks and aircraft in the future, and repurposing biofuels.
- Restructuring supply chains by reducing reliance on long-distance shipping and bringing production closer to markets.
- Government austerity policies, such as limited fuel subsidies or restrictions on high consumption, and encouraging remote work.
However, these solutions are not magic bullets; they require a fundamental transformation that may take a decade or more.
Therefore, it is clear that the battle for oil is no longer decided in the fields themselves, but instead along the routes it takes. Power today is not measured solely by the size of reserves, but by the ability to secure or disrupt the flow of oil through maritime and land routes, from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb, and from pipelines in the deserts to the ports.
Oil is no longer merely a strategic commodity, but a complex network of routes. Whoever controls it possesses the power to reshape the global economy without firing a single shot. While countries strive to diversify supply routes and improve energy infrastructure, the balance remains fragile, resting on a delicate balancing act between deterrence and flow, between protection and coercion. Major powers have long recognized this. China has pursued alternative energy sources, regardless of their success or failure, and the United States has also been actively engaged militarily, economically, and politically, leveraging its influence to exert control. What we are witnessing today—wars for influence in the Middle East, its transit routes, and Africa—is nothing more than a silent conflict between two sides that, in moments of darkness, could escalate into a war far larger than we imagine.
Thus, the future of energy will be determined not only by those who possess the oil, but also by those who control its transit routes. At a moment when interests intersect and transit routes narrow, the struggle for control could escalate, leading to a rewriting of the rules of power in the international system.
The lands of the Muslims are not far from moving and bringing about a great change, for they possess a divine Islamic ideology, great wealth, and major passages. They are in the middle of the world, by the Permission of Allah (swt), they will transform from a follower to a controller within a closed circle from the fields to the ports. They possess power that comes not only from the quantity of reserves but also from continuous control. They control production - fields and surplus capacity - and transportation - pipeline networks and internal facilities- and they also control transit, as all the straits - the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Bosphorus Strait, the Dardanelles - will become the property of this state. Thus, the pricing mechanism, sales, contracts, and money will all be in the hands of the Khaleefah (Caliph) of this state. When the critical infrastructure is built, with multiple deep-water ports, strategic storage facilities and refineries close to shipping points, then the ideological state; the coming Khilafah (Caliphate), by the Permission of Allah (swt), if it tightens its grip on the energy links, passages, and other things, will transform into a global transit platform that manages the flow, instead of chasing it.
True power lies not in closing arteries, but in the ability to keep them open, at the price and on the terms of this ideological state. Managed stability becomes the highest form of influence. Everything that the major powers today seek to possess originally belongs to the Khilafah. The Belt and Road Initiative is in our lands, the New Silk Road is in our lands, the straits are our straits, energy is our energy, and raw materials of all kinds are ours. This will only be realized after we topple the thrones of the traitors and establish our state, the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly Guided Caliphate) on the Method of Prophethood, as the Messenger of Allah (saw) foretold. This is not a dream, but a reality that will soon become apparent to the world, by the support of Allah (swt) for us through those striving to resume the Islamic way of life and restore the glory of Muslims by establishing the Khilafah, which Allah (swt) promised us with. This Deen will reach its zenith, ruling and reigning supreme on the international stage, by the Permission of Allah (swt).
The Messenger of Allah (saw) said,
«بَدَأَ الإِسْلامُ غَرِيباً، وَسَيَعُودُ كَمَا بَدَأَ غَرِيباً، فَطُوبَى لِلْغُرَبَاءِ» “Islam began as something strange, and it will return to being strange as it began, so blessed are the strangers.” And he (saw) said,
«لَيَبْلُغَنَّ هَذَا الْأَمْرُ مَا بَلَغَ اللَّيْلُ وَالنَّهَارُ، وَلَا يَتْرُكُ اللَّهُ بَيْتَ مَدَرٍ وَلَا وَبَرٍ إِلَّا أَدْخَلَهُ اللَّهُ هَذَا الدِّينَ، بِعِزِّ عَزِيزٍ أَوْ بِذُلِّ ذَلِيلٍ؛ عِزّاً يُعِزُّ اللَّهُ بِهِ الْإِسْلَامَ، وَذُلّاً يُذِلُّ اللَّهُ بِهِ الْكُفْرَ»
“This matter will reach as far as the night and day reach, and Allah will not leave a house of mud or hair without bringing this Deen into it, either through the might of the mighty or the humiliation of the lowly; a might by which Allah exalts Islam, and a humiliation by which Allah humbles disbelief.”
Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Nabil Abdul Karim