Stage One was Aleppo, so will Idlib become Stage Two?

What has Euphrates Shield accomplished?

News:

Within our legitimate self-defense rights according to the 51st Article of the UN Convention, Operation Euphrates Shield which was initiated in coordination with the Coalition Forces on August 24, 2016, which aimed bringing down the existing terrorists in the region and ensuring our border security especially the members of Terrorist Organization ISIS, which threatens the security of our country and our people, was successfully completed.

Within the protection of our national security in accordance to the plans that have been made; we continue our operations to prevent any undesirable occurrences, to allow our Syrian brothers to return to their country, and to ensure security and stability in the region.

We respectfully announce to the public. (Source: www.tsk.tr/BasinFacts/BA_16)

 Comment:

The "Operation Euphrates Shield", which was initiated in coordination with the Coalition Forces led by the United States on August 24, 2016, was announced that it ended on March 31, 2017. The General Staff emphasized that the operation was completed "successfully" in the statement that they made. Of course, it is a big question what kind of "achievements" the Operation Euphrates Shield has gained, strategically, militarily and politically. On the other hand, it is understood from the statements of the Chief of the General Staff, President Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım that just the operation which was made under the name of "Operation Euphrates Shield" is over. President Erdogan; "In Syria we finished the first stage. We will give new names to new operations. There is very nice surprise for all the terrorists in the spring."

The reason that was shown for the start of the Operation Euphrates Shield was the action of ISIS in Gaziantep. However, before the terrorist act, the Huber Pavilion in Tarabya had already decided for an operation. So even if there weren’t any terrorist action, the operation would have been started. So it is understood that some people have "eased" Turkey’s work to help Turkey to start the operation.

When the operation started, it was explained that there were two reasons: first to remove ISIS from the Turkish border and secondly to ensure the Azez-Cerablus line, which is the only small section that isn’t controlled by PYD / YPG in the Turkish border, merging with other cantons.

One of the two political goals was removing ISIS from the borders of Turkey and to increase control at the border, was successful and because of this Turkey has been "celebrated" by Tillerson for its success. It is not true that the second target is achieved. Only assembly at the borderline has been prevented for now. However, a Munbic Afrin connection was established over Aleppo.

Two targets were declared to the public in the "Operation Euphrates Shield". In reality, however, the forces that allowed Turkey to enter Syria had given him a much different role. As a matter of fact, Turkey entered Syria after the approval of the US, Iran and the regime. It has also been approved by Russia after its normalizing relations in a dizzying manner. As Aleppo was falling, Putin said; "There are things in Aleppo that we fully agree on. About these, we had an agreement with the President of the Republic of Turkey when he visited St. Petersburg". Therefore, if there is something that happened with the Operation Euphrates Shield is this, "In the fall of Aleppo, the works of the regime forces have been eased".

In that case, will President Erdogan help Idlib fall in the second stage?

What Turkey couldn’t find in Obama what it hoped for, has been waiting a long time for a plan for Syria from Trump. And the plan that has come has not changed and Rakka operation will be together with PYD. Together with PYD, Turkey was also requested to participate in this operation. Although the United States has been humiliating the government of Turkey many times in the public opinion and although that USA continuous aiding the structures that Turkey sees as a "terrorist organization", Turkey did not give even the smallest amount of counteract.

The operation of the Euphrates was a limited operation in cooperation with international forces and it ended when it came to the border drawn by international powers. Both Russia and the US supported the Operation of the Euphrates, but neither the regime nor the PYD allowed a conflict. Therefore, the Euphrates shield was not a victory but rather a setup against Aleppo and the Syrian revolutionaries.

Therefore, no political and strategic success can be mentioned with Turkey’s operation of the Euphrates Shield. Turkey does not even hear the need to conceal its true face anymore, by saying what it said earlier and reversing it today.

Now it will either support the Rakka operation, which the US will carry out with PYD, or the Idlib operation, which Russia will carry out with the PYD, or will continue to cooperate with the international forces in any way, either by giving support or staying silent. America will use the soft power of Turkey against the revolutionaries to play an Aleppo-like game, now in Idlib. Therefore, the Syrian people must be vigilant against the Turkish state that they see from themselves. For the danger from him is greater than the danger from the enemy.

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by

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