Hizb-ut Tahrir / East Africa apart from condemning the past two weeks of violence in Zanzibar, forcefully condemns the Tanzania Police Force brutality and their collaboration with Zanzibar Palamilitary Units (Kvz) on intimidations, harassments, arbitrarily arrests, torture,

After lengthy and tough debates on the management of Mahakam Oil & Gas Block at the time when the contract of Total Indonesie will expire in 2017, it was reported that the Indonesian government finally made a decision that Mahakam Block will be managed by Pertamina;

Headlines:

• Veiled Muslim mayor a first for BoVeiled Muslim mayor a first for Bosnia, possibly Europe
• US wants Syrian Opposition Shakeup to "Defeat" Assad
• Arab World will be 'Relieved' by Strike on Iran: Jewish PM
• UK to Double Number of Drones in Afghanistan
• UN: Myanmar Must Protect Muslims, Stop Discrimination

Details:

Veiled Muslim mayor a first for Bosnia, possibly Europe:

Bosnia's first veiled mayor began her duties this week, after an election which saw her becoming the first hijab-clad mayor in the country, and possibly in Europe. Amra Babic, who served as a regional Finance Minister before running for mayor, will now run the Bosnian town of Visoko, in an electoral win she describes as a "victory of tolerance" amid government debates elsewhere in Europe over laws to ban the Muslim veil. "It's a victory of tolerance," Babic, a wartime widow told the Associated Press last week. "We have sent a message out from Visoko. A message of tolerance, democracy and equality." "I am the East and I am the West," she declared. "I am proud to be a Muslim and to be a European. I come from a country where religions and cultures live next to each other. All that together is my identity." Now Babic, for the next four years, will run a town of 45,000 people, with a population consisting of mostly Bosnian-Muslims. And her electoral pledge for the town? Babic has said she wants to fix the infrastructure, partly ruined by the Bosnian 1992-95 war; in turn hoping to make Visoko attractive for investments, encourage youth to start small businesses and lower the unemployment rate which stands at more than 25 percent. Out of Bosnia and Herzegovina's nearly 4 million population, some 40 percent are Muslims, 31 percent Orthodox Christians and 10 percent Catholics. "Finally we have overcome our own prejudices," she told AP. "The one about women in politics, then the one about hijab-wearing women - and even the one about hijab-wearing women in politics."

US wants Syrian Opposition Shakeup to "Defeat" Assad:

The Obama administration said Wednesday it would push for a major shakeup in Syria's opposition leadership so that it better represents those dying on the front line, can rally wider support and resist attempts by extremists to hijack the revolution against the Assad regime. Speaking to reporters in Croatia's capital, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the administration was suggesting names and organizations that should feature prominently in any new rebel leadership that emerges from talks starting next week in Doha, the capital of Qatar. She dismissed the Syrian National Council, a Paris-based group of regime opponents who have lived in exile for decades, saying its leadership days are over, even if it could still play a role. The council was viewed with suspicion by rebels who stayed in Syria and fought the regime of President Bashar Assad. "This cannot be an opposition represented by people who have many good attributes but have in many instances not been inside Syria for 20, 30 or 40 years," Clinton said. "There has to be a representation of thos:e who are on the front lines fighting and dying today to obtain their freedom. And there needs to be an opposition leadership structure that is dedicated to representing and protecting all Syrians." The shift in policy reflects as much the failure of the SNC to win widespread political legitimacy as the Obama administration's desire to be seen playing a leading role in shaping an opposition capable of winning the support of frightened Syrian minority groups and replacing Assad. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has criticized the Obama administration for spending too much time trying to win support for a Syrian political transition plan at the United Nations, where Russia and China have protected Assad from three damning resolutions. And he has called for stronger U.S. leadership in forging a cohesive body to lead Syria from decades of dictatorship.

Arab World will be 'Relieved' by Strike on Iran: Jewish PM

The Arab world will be "relieved" if the Jewish state strikes at Iranian nuclear installations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview published on Thursday by France's Paris-Match weekly. He said in case of an attack, "five minutes later, contrary to what sceptics think, I believe there will be a great feeling of relief throughout the region," said Netanyahu. "Iran is not popular in the Arab world, far from it," he said in comments reported in French. "And some neighbouring regimes and their citizens have well understood that a nuclear-armed Iran is a danger for them, not only for Israel," he said, without mentioning specific nations. Netanyahu has warned that a nuclear Iran would pose an existential threat to the Jewish state and has repeatedly refused to rule out military action, fuelling speculation that an attack was imminent. But he then appeared to pull back, pushing the deadline until spring or even summer 2013, ostensibly to allow time for international sanctions to work. Iran denies Jewish and Western suspicions that its nuclear programme is a front for a drive for a weapons capability.

UK to Double Number of Drones in Afghanistan:

Britain's Royal Air Force (RAF) makes urgent purchase of five more Reaper drones, which will be the first to be controlled from a UK base. The UK is to double the number of armed RAF "drones" flying combat and surveillance operations in Afghanistan and, for the first time, the aircraft will be controlled from terminals and screens in Britain. In the new squadron of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), five Reaper drones will be sent to Afghanistan, the Guardian can reveal. It is expected they will begin operations within six weeks. Pilots based at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire will fly the recently bought American-made UAVs at a hi-tech hub built on the site in the past 18 months. The UK's existing five Reaper drones, which are used to target suspected insurgents in Helmand, have been operated from Creech air force base in Nevada because Britain has not had the capability to fly them from here. After "standing up" the new XIII squadron in a ceremony this Friday, the UK will soon have 10 Reapers in Afghanistan. The government has yet to decide whether the aircraft will remain there after 2014, when all Nato combat operations are due to end. "The new squadron will have three control terminals at RAF Waddington, and the five aircraft will be based in Afghanistan," a spokesman confirmed. "We will continue to operate the other Reapers from Creech though, in time, we will wind down operations there and bring people back to the UK." In the first three-and-a-half years of using the Reapers in Afghanistan, the aircraft flew 23,400 hours and fired 176 missiles. But those figures have almost doubled in the past 15 months as Nato seeks to weaken the Taliban ahead of withdrawal.

UN: Myanmar Must Protect Muslims, Stop Discrimination:

United Nations Human Rights investigators called on Myanmar yesterday to halt deadly sectarian violence and warned it not to use the conflict as a pretext to remove Rohingya minority Muslims. Some 89 people have been killed in clashes between Buddhist Rakhines and Muslim Rohingyas in western Myanmar in the past 10 days, according to the latest official toll. "This situation must not become an opportunity to permanently remove an unwelcome community," said a joint statement issued by Mr Tomas Ojea Quintana, UN special rapporteur on Myanmar and independent experts on minority issues and the internally displaced. They voiced their "deep concern about the assertion of the government and others that the Rohingya are illegal immigrants and stateless persons." "If the country is to be successful in the process of democratic transition, it must be bold in addressing the human rights challenges that exist," Mr Ojea Quintana said. "In the case of Rakhine state, this involves addressing the long-standing endemic discrimination against the Rohingya community that exists within sections of local and national government, as well as society at large." The Rohingyas say their homes were burnt down by Rakhines armed with slingshots, wooden staves, knives and gasoline. The UN says that more than 97 per cent of the 28,108 people who have fled the violence are Muslims, mostly stateless Rohingya. Many now live in camps, joining 75,000 mostly Rohingya displaced in June after a previous explosion of sectarian violence killed at least 80 people.

Abu Hashim

Syria's Chemical Weapons and Foreign Intervention

The spectre of chemical weapons in Syria has been cited continuously for over 18 months ever since the uprising in Syria began. News reports on 12 July 2012 indicated that some Syrian chemical weapons were being moved from their storage areas causing concern amongst US officials that the weapons might be used against rebels or civilians. On Monday 9th October the US Department of Defence confirmed that a team of US military planners were in Jordan in order to deal with Syria's chemical weapons.

The team, led by special operations forces and comprising about 150 troops, mainly from the US Army, is constructing a headquarters building in Amman from which operational planning and intelligence gathering will take place. "We have been working with Jordan for a period of time now ... on a number of the issues that have developed as a result of what's happened in Syria," US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta told a news conference in Brussels. Panetta said those issues included monitoring chemical weapons sites "to determine how best to respond to any concerns in that area."

The brutal crackdown that has been taking place for the past 18 months is not enough of a reason to intervene for the US, whilst the prospect of chemical weapons and civil war is constantly cited as reasons for possible intervention. The possible bloodbath in Benghazi, Libya was the pretext for military intervention in Libya, however the bloodbath of the Ummah that takes place every day in Syria is still not enough for the West to intervene to remove al-Assad.

Chemical weapons

Syria is not a signatory to either the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). As a result it began developing chemical weapons in 1973 prior to the Yom Kipper War. Ever since, Syria has made efforts to acquire and maintain an arsenal of chemical weapons. Whilst Syria has denied its possession of chemical weapons, this as in order to create uncertainty with those who have designs on the country. Foreign Ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi, said at a news conference shown live on Syrian state television on July 2012, confirming Syria possessed chemical weapons: "These weapons are made to be used strictly and only in the event of external aggression against the Syrian Arab Republic, any such weapons were carefully monitored by the Syrian Army, and that ultimately their use would be decided by generals."

Syria reportedly manufactures Sarin, Tabun, VX, and mustard gas types of chemical weapons. These are from chemical weapons production facilities that have been identified by Western non-proliferation experts at approximately 5 sites, plus one suspected weapons base, which include Al Safir, Cerin, Hama, Homs, Latakia and Palmyra.

Independent assessments indicate that Syrian production is a mere few hundred tons of chemical agent per year. This is because Syria is unable to internally produce many of the necessary precursors to create chemical weapons and is dependent upon importing important precursor chemicals and production equipment. The CIA reports in nearly every declassified acquisition report to the US Congress over the last five years the efforts of Syria to obtain precursor chemicals and equipment from external sources. The chemicals stockpiled prior to international export controls have likely long been exhausted.

The End Game in Syria

The situation currently in the country is that the al-Assad regime which controlled every strata of society has failed to end the uprising, employing all sorts of brutal tactics to quell the demand for change by the masses. The situation has been complicated by international powers who all have a stake in the outcome of the country and who have been manoeuvring to influence the outcome. Successive strategies by the West have failed to stem the call for change by the people of Syria. What is currently taking place is the battle for the country post Al-Assad between the Sunni Muslims of Syria and the US.

This stalemate has been achieved by the Ummah as they left their fear of the regime and all the notorious tools it uses and decided to take on the regime and have improved in their coordination and tactics. The Ummah in Syria has been at war for over a year now, with experience and aid from defecting Syrian troops, their fighting acumen has improved. The sharp increase in the number of destroyed Syrian army tanks and armoured fighting vehicles attests to the capability of the Ummah. The influx of fighters from other countries as has been reported has also bolstered the Ummah. This influx includes experienced Syrian and Iraqi fighters who fought in the Iraq war against US forces. Their experience in Improvised Explosive Devices (IED's) would appear to have had an enormous effect on the Ummah's capabilities to inflict casualties and damage on the Syrian military.

This is why the Syrian military has avoided costly armoured attacks on rebel-held urban areas where armour is more vulnerable. The regime has come to rely on air-power and shelling from afar using tanks, artillery and attack helicopter support. The opposition as well as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) has not needed to match the security forces' numbers or firepower because the rebels force the regime to fight everywhere at once, taking advantage of their superior mobility and flexibility to mount effective raids and ambushes where and when it suits them.

As the opposition do not have a control and command structure like a conventional army infiltration by the West as well as al-Assad's forces it has been extremely difficult. Due to the prospects of defections al-Assad has been forced to rely almost entirely upon the Republican Guard and Fourth Armoured Division, as well as the Shabiha, keeping the bulk of the army, which is Sunni in their barracks. As a result, al-Assad has lost most of rural Syria and concentrated his forces in the battle for Damascus and Aleppo.

The lack of heavy weapons by the opposition is the only obstacle standing in their way of carrying out a sustained attack on the capital Damascus and the countries economic hub - Aleppo. America, Britain, France, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are all attempting the lure of the opposition with promises of heavy weapons in return for their loyalty. Their failure to lure them is why heavy weapons have not been delivered to the opposition, as much as they say they are supporting the opposition.

Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD's)

There have been a number of reports that indicate Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons is being moved to ensure their safety. However the battle taking place in Syria between al-Assad and the Ummah, chemical weapons will do little to alter the facts on the ground.

Syria does not possess large quantities of chemical agents. What Syria does have will also need to be transported in yields to cause significant damage. As military commanders learned on the battlefields of Europe during World War I, and during the Iran-Iraq war, chemical agents are volatile and quick to vaporize, and they tend to dissipate quickly. As a result, deadly concentrations can be difficult to amass in a real-world setting.

The nature of the uprising in Syria is that it is taking place all over the country. The rebels do not have fixed facilities or headquarters where they stock their weapons and use these as supply lines. Using artillery to disperse chemical agents would have little impact as the opposition forces are dispersed around the country and thus chemical weapons would have little impact when dispersed over a large area.

Chemical weapons could be deployed using a delivery system such as a missile. The hazardous material would need to be manufactured in lethal amounts as a warhead and integrated with a missile. Al-Assad's relationship with Russia has resulted in large weapons exports which included a large stock of Scud missiles. Scud missiles are a series of tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. They were exported widely to other countries, including Syria.

As a tactical military weapon, Scud missiles are ineffective tool. The Scud missiles shot into Israel from Iraq in 1991 did not hit any significant military, government, or infrastructure targets, and only two Israelis died from the direct impact of Scuds. Scud missiles are more a weapon of terror to strike fear into the enemy. Scud missiles are suited to larger targets such as ports, airports, industrial sites etc. Integrating a chemical warhead with a Scud missile will only be useful if there are silos' or heavy machinery to target in fixed areas, which is not the case in Syria. Al-Assad is fighting an unconventional rather than a conventional force. The unconventional battle and use of asymmetric tactics is what is leading to a stalemate. In Syria there will be too many rebel units to target and scuds are notoriously inaccurate. It is also questionable if the al-Assad regime has even succeeded in integrating its chemical weapons warheads with a missile. In July 2007, a Syrian arms depot exploded, killing at least 15 Syrians. Jane's Defence Weekly, the military and corporate affairs magazine believed that the explosion happened when Iranian and Syrian military personnel attempted to fit a Scud missile with a mustard gas warhead.

Intervention

The bombing at the National Security Headquarters in Damascus on July 18, 2012 that eliminated several of the regime's top security bosses and possible candidates to take over from al-Assad was the moment when the US constantly highlighted possible intervention due to civil war and chemical weapons falling into radical hands. The Syrian Defense Minister Dawoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani, Interior Minister Mohammad al-Shaar, National Security Council Chief Hisham Biktyar and Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat (Al-Assad's brother-in-law) are all reported to have perished, whilst Al-Assad's brother Maher al Assad - the Republican Guard and Fourth Division Commander is reported to have lost both his legs. This event led to a flurry of statements by US officials such as the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, US Defence Secretary, the Secretary of State and the President himself increasing the calls for military intervention.

This order of events shows the US might intervene if the Ummah in Syria are on the verge of overthrowing al-Assad as they would replace him with another ruler who is not an agent or proxy of the US. The spread of chemical weapons may be used as an excuse and will be the pretext to intervene if such a point is reached. The US has hindered the progress of the opposition by not providing heavy weapons and stopping anyone else doing so, in order to construct an alternative in the country that will be loyal to it. America's military machine will intervene if the Ummah further increase in their capability and show signs of capitulating the al-Assad regime. After 18 months and for the moment the US has failed in constructing an alternative, stopping the progress of the Ummah and luring the opposition with promises of heavy weapons remains its strategy.

Conclusions

America and its allies are constructing various myths to justify possible intervention. Until now the US has relied upon proxy countries in the region in the hope that its interests will be protected, with as much of the Syrian state machinery as possible. Chemical weapons could be the excuse to intervene in the country if the Ummah is on the verge of overthrowing the al-Assad regime.

Adnan Khan