بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question:
Agencies reported that a meeting took place between the Pakistani officials & their Afghani counterparts which was also attended by the leaders of the tribes on Tuesday, 28th October, 2008 CE. It reported that the participants agreed to pursue contacts with the Taliban militias.
Does this mean that they will initiate contacts with the Taliban or that they are already in touch? Where will these contacts lead to? Would it result in the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, an end to America's hold there and the Taliban's return to power? Or whether it implies that the Taliban will gradually share power either directly or indirectly and become loyal to the US?
Answer:
Before we attempt to answer the question, it is necessary to comprehend the following issues:
First: The reported meeting could not have taken place without the approval of the United States, which means that the US had sponsored the talks. This is because it was attended by its principal ‘players', i.e. the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Even the tribal leaders who participated in the talks were not hostile to the two governments. Further especially because this meeting took place in Islamabad and it is an open secret that both the regimes in Pakistan & Afghanistan are fully loyal to America.
Secondly: The United States is in a real mess in Afghanistan, it can neither consolidate peace there despite the presence of over 30,000 allied troops of the NATO. What has further added to America's problems is the fact that its allies have refused to send any additional troops and even those who agreed to reinforce the troops have only announced sending of an insignificant and insufficient number. Moreover, there are those who in response the American requests for additional troops, announced their intentions to actually withdraw! The Canadian Prime Minister for instance has declared its intentions to withdraw its troops. Infact the statement of the commander of the British forces reflected his rejoicing at the cost of the US when ruled out a decisive victory in Afghanistan! General Peter Wool, the Operations chief of the British Forces in Afghanistan warned recently against sending additional troops and substantiating his stance, he testified before the Parliamentary Committee on Defence that the proposal for additional forces for Afghanistan was a ‘misleading' proposal. Similarly the German authorities announced reduction in its forces instead of sending additional troops. The leftist politicians in Germany have demanded an end to German Special Forces participation in the Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.
Thus the United States is caught in a real security crisis in Afghanistan, and this is an undeniable reality. Even Karzai himself stated on 30th October, 2008 CE: "We have achieved some successes, but we have failed to secure peace which is one of the most important requirement for the country, and our highways are not safe when one cannot safely travel by car from Kandahar in the south to Herat in the west, or even travel between Kabul to Bakita which is only a 100 kms south of the capital". These comments of Karzai were addressed to gathering of women and reported by Reuters.
Thirdly: The Taliban are fierce fighters and they control most of the strategic points in Afghanistan by virtue of which they enjoy a position of considerable strength. But on the other hand, from the perspective of political insight, their position is weak, and it is very conpiciously so. They once ruled Afghanistan and strongly attached to Musharraf's Pakistan. It was then questioned as to how they could be so aligned to Pakistan which was so completely loyal to America. They were asked why they were not afraid that America could attack them through Pakistan? They presumed that their relations with Pakistan, although loyal to the US, will bot harm them, rather they considered this to be beneficial to their interests! It anyway soon became clear that Musharraf allowed Pakistan's land and airspace as launch-pad for US attacks on Taliban authority in Afghanistan and spelt its doom.
These three factors must be borne in mind in order to fully comprehend the situation resulting from the meetings, contacts and discussions with the Taliban which are now an open secret. These meetings are not clandestine, rather they are in the open and Karzai himself, the Afghani ambassador to the UN and the Saudi Foreign Minister have made announcements about them in the run up to the latest meeting on 30th October, 2008 C.E which was held in Islamabad.
Further, the Taliban, despite their vowed statements that they will not enter into negotiations while Afghanistan was under occupation, have not denied their meetings with the Karzai government though they do not term these discussions as negotiations or political dialogue! They simply refer to these meetings as dinner meetings! Abdussalam Za'eef, Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan clarified to the Reuters agency that certain Taliban elements travelled to Saudi Arabia last month and met the Saudi King and some Afghan government officials. He asserted that there were some 15 or 16 persons and some 7 or 8 former officials of the Taliban movement who met the Saudi King Abdullah but during this meeting they did not discuss or negotiate any political issue involving Afghanistan. Wakeel Ahmed Mutawakkil, the former Taliban foreign minister said: "there were no peace talks with the Afghan government in Saudi Arabia last month despite the presence of Afghan government officials in Saudi and there was no representative of the Taliban. It was merely a general meeting over dinner....".
Although the US did try to conceal the actual facts, some details were published in the media which indicated one way or another that America did not wish the entire picture to emerge. The Wall Street Journal reported on the day the said meeting, i.e. on 30th October, 2008 CE that the United States was considering participating in discussions with elements of the Taliban, the journal added that a new US approach was finalised in the draft recommendation during assessment of the secret White House strategy in Afghanistan. The Wall Street Journal asserted that the US will actively participate in the dialogue. This was reported on the website of the journal.
To conclude, meetings did take place and are continuing and the Islamaband meeting announced the agreement to pursue dialogue with the Taliban. As they have mentioned the next meeting is scheduled in the upcoming 2 or 3 months in Kabul.
As to where would these contacts lead to? Would they result in America withdrawing from Afghanistan and an end to its hegemony there, leading to the return of Taliban to power? Or is it the gradual begining of the Taliban's participation in a pro-US regime either directly or through proxy?
The plain answer to this is that the United States wants to emerge out of this mess in Afghanistan as well as Iraq after suffering severe losses in the two countries, especially since her allies have begun to express their utter displeasure and uneasiness to remain embroiled in Afghanistan only to suffer enormous losses. Moreover, fighting has been intensified in Waziristan & other tribal regions of Pakistan and hence building bridges with the Taliban may perhaps bring respite for America and her allies in Pakistan. But at the same time the US wants its allied government in Afghanistan to be a part of the dialogue & agreement so that it can protect its interests and influence and thus breathe in safety & security...this is why the US has deputed its agents in Pakistan and Afghanistan as the negotiating parties in the carrot & stick negotiations with the Taliban.
The Taliban started their fighting with the US-led occupation forces with the aim of cleansing their land and ruled their land free form the influence of the Kufr states led by America. Now their entering into negotiations in like treading into uncharted territory unlike for America & its agents Pakistan & Afghanistan. It is apprehended that the Taliban may be cheated and misled in the negotiations by the mixture of America's carrot & stick policy. The Taliban may consider Pakistan & Afghanistan as being different from America and harbour goodwill for them!
Taliban's entry into negotiations with the agents of America in Pakistan & Afghanistan and especially sponsored by the Saudi rulers will plausibly make them think well of their intentions due to their self-claimed proximity to Islam. But the truth is that these rulers are loyal to the West and this loyalty weighs more prominently to them than their sincerity or closeness to Islam. We can say that Taliban's entry into the maze of negotiations would most certainly lead them down the path of giving away ground and concessions irrespective of whether these meetings are called as negotiations, dialogue, dinner talks or any other nomenclature, they are simply negotiations & concessions and nothing else. The above referred statements of the former Taliban ambassador and Foreign minister substantiate this, they both acknowledged that the meetings did take place but they did not refer to these talks as negotiations! These are mere semantics & euphemisms in order to make the whole process more palatable.
In conclusion, the Taliban's entry into dialogue with America either directly or indirectly and that too before the US troops withdrawal would lead to a gradual participation of Taliban in a pro-US regime, either on its own or through proxy.
We pray to Allah سبحانه وتعالى that the Taliban do not fall prey into such negotiations and are not cheated & misled by the allurement of the carrot & stick policy presented to them. We hope that they will consider the Pakistani & Afghani officials just as they look upon the US. We also hope that the Taliban fully comprehend that the US is inextricably caught in this security maze and they are able to fully harness the situation to their advantage and not be cheated into them in the guise of negotiations.