بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question and Answer
India-Pakistan Relations in Light of US Policy
US President was one of the first to congratulate the victory of Janata Party and its leader Modi, where he has invited him to visit Washington; so it was announced on 05/06/2014 that Modi will make this visit in the month of September. The inauguration of India's new Prime Minister, Modi, took place on 26/05/2014 after the announcement of landslide victory of his party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with 282 seats of the total 545 seats in the parliament's seats, except two seats to be elected by the president, inflicting a heinous historic defeat to the Indian Congress party, which won 44 seats. It is for the first time that the Prime Minister of Pakistan to attend such a ceremony, following Modi's invitation to him to attend it and to meet with him. What are the implications of that? And how will the relations between the two countries pursue within the US policy and plans in relation to the two countries and the region and its impact on China and Afghanistan?
1. American support for Modi had been remarkable during the elections. The campaign polishing Modi was not only run in India but extended to the wide range of Hindu sympathetic organizations residing outside the country, especially in America, which sought to promote "Modi" as a leader for all Indians and who is willing to work with minorities without exception. Among those organizations that stood by Modi's side; American India Foundation and US India Political Action Committee (USINPAC). These organizations did not fail to coordinate and cooperate with the arms following the BJP directly or indirectly, such as the Foreign Affairs Cell and the Overseas Friends of BJP, not to mention thousands of Indians living in America and elsewhere.
Perhaps what confirms this overwhelming support for the party is what was published by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that most of the funds raised abroad to finance the election campaign was drawn to BJP, and that more than ten thousand Indians holding American and European nationalities and support policies that are incentives for companies and market economy, flocked to India during the election campaign, to support Modi and urged voters to give him their votes. Of course, this momentum generated by the dense support of the party friends and the supporters of its policies and the supporters of Modi and his allies, had a big role in upholding him and the marginalization of the rest of the election campaigns of other parties.
In any case, it is clear that the pressing interest of America in the Far East was behind the winning of the fanatical Hindu Modi. Thus, it came in an article published by the BBC Arabic on 19th May 2014 under the title "Viewpoints: How will Modi affect US-India relations?" As quoted in the article under the title "Doing business with Mr. Modi" by Lisa Curtis, Heritage Foundation: "New Delhi and Washington share strategic objectives, whether it involves fighting terrorism, maintaining open seaways, or hedging against China's rise. Specifically the BJP interest in adopting a more assertive hedging policy regarding China will give US officials a chance to engage closely with them". Also, US President Barack Obama urged Modi to visit the United States when he telephoned him on Friday to congratulate him on his victory; according to a statement issued by the White House. Obama said he looks forward to working closely with Modi to "fulfill the extraordinary promise of the US-India strategic partnership". According to the report published by the BBC in Arabic, on 16th May 2014, Obama said that "the President invited Modi to visit Washington at a mutually agreeable time to further strengthen the bilateral relations between the two countries."
2. Thus we have seen a US eagerness for the victory of the Modi-led Janata Party immediately after the elections and before the announcement of the final and official results. It was mentioned in the Middle East Newspaper on 12/05/2014: "Obama praised the Indian elections which just ended on 12/05/2014 with the release of preliminary results that shows the winning of the BJP, advancing the final results on 16/05/2014", saying, "We look forward to the formation of a new Indian government to work closely with India's next administration to make the coming years equally transformative..." This indicates the willingness of America for the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Modi to win in order to cooperate with it, like when the party cooperated with it when headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee when he was in power during the period between 1998 and 2004.
And now as well, when the victory of this party was officially announced on 16/05/2014, Obama congratulated its leader Modi in a telephone call, and invited him to visit Washington and meet him. The US President indicated in his telephone conversation with Modi that he was "looking forward to working closely with Modi to push the extraordinary and the promising US-India strategic partnership." And "agreed to continue to expand and deepen cooperation on a large scale." (The Indian NDTV, 17/05/2014). On 05/06/2014, two Indian newspapers namely, Times of India and Hindustan Times published news that Modi's visit to Washington will be in September to meet US President. All this indicates that America is confident of the progress of India under the leadership of this party, headed by its leader Modi, under the name of exceptional strategic partnership. News agents reported at an earlier date this year, the news of meetings of US Ambassador to India with the leader of the Janata Party, Modi, before the elections, indicating the drawing of shared plans that Modi to follow after his election in accordance with the US policy.
America cheered for the victory of Modi and the return of BJP to power, after ten years of rule by the Congress party, where the India-America relations in its era were not so good, since it did not respond much with America especially on the subject of confronting China. That's why Obama rushed the election results in India and announced his delight for the return of the American agents to power. His delight has made him forget the American decision to ban Modi from entering the United States because of the massacres of Muslims in Gujarat when Modi was its Chief Minister. And in this a lesson for those deceived by what America claims of human rights. As America strikes all human rights if this is in their own interest. Thus, America's decision to ban Modi has become a warm welcome for his victory and a ceremonial case for Modi's upcoming visit to the United States...
Accordingly, the United States at the height of its ecstasy for the return of the Janata Party to rule, since those loyal to America became the rulers in India and Pakistan. So it is expected for America to ask its agents in Pakistan, led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to provide more concessions to India to strengthen its position i.e. the position of India in the face of China. In other words, US want to stop the state of conflict between Pakistan and India, but at the expense of Pakistan... The main issue that weighs heavily on the bilateral relations is the disputed Kashmir region, followed by the presence of armed Islamic groups active in India, which New Delhi accuses Pakistan of supporting them. It is expected that America would press on its agent Nawaz Sharif to make significant and dangerous concessions for the benefit of India in Kashmir to appease the Hindu extremist, Narendra Modi, and his party. And that America will press on Nawaz Sharif to pursue the militants in Kashmir to eradicate the so-called terrorism, so that it is able to make India focus on confronting the rising China.
The like of this has occurred when the BJP was in power between the years 1998 and 2004, where Pakistan made concessions in Kashmir in favor of India to strengthen American agents there and enhance its influence. Thus, Nawaz Sharif ordered the Pakistani army to withdraw from the Heights of Kargil after being liberated by the army and the Mujahideen in their heroic battles. This was after Nawaz Sharif visited US and met its president at that time, Bill Clinton on 04/07/1999. So, America pressured him to withdraw from it, and so he succumbed and ordered the withdrawal... Nawaz now continues in concessions, and the harbingers of that is that Nawaz Sharif took part in the inauguration ceremony of India's new prime minister, Modi, on 26/5/2014 and his meeting with him for an hour and a half during which Modi told him that: "Pakistan must prevent militants from using its soil to attack India and punish the perpetrators of the attack on Mumbai in 2008". (Reuters, 27/05/2014) But Nawaz Sharif showed weakness and subservience; he did not correspond by a response at the level equal to that, but he merely told reporters, "He held a warm and cordial bilateral meeting with Modi". He says these words, while still the events of Indian state of Gujarat are present in the minds of Muslims. In 2002, when Narendra Modi became a chief minister of Gujarat, the Hindus did atrocities against Muslims led to the deaths of more than 2,000 Muslims and the displacement of about 100 thousands of them and they continue to suffer the repercussions of this displacement and did not return to their homes. The territorial Government did not help them or the Central Government of India, and also did not raise the issue of India's support for separatists in Balochistan province of Pakistan. Thus, instead of Nawaz Sharif addressing the India's new Prime Minister, Modi, and at least throwing all this at his face, rather he was week in front of him in accordance to the requirements of the American policy of making Pakistan appease India!
3. On the other hand, it appears that America is giving a role for India in Afghanistan and works to strengthen relations between the two countries so as not to remain in need of Pakistan to promote stability. Hence, the first president that Modi met at his inauguration was Karzai of Afghanistan. Thus, America trusts India when the Government is loyal to it; as is the case now, more than its trust in Pakistan. Although the government in Pakistan is loyal to it, but is afraid that any change may happen in this Muslim country at any moment, so it is unsafe for it in the long run. Its people are in the move for change, and there is a real and serious tendency towards liberation and freedom from the West in general and in particular, America, which has authority over the ruling regime and brings agent rulers, in addition to its holding of the army leadership. And so America has created pillars for itself in the political and military leadership in Pakistan. And America fears that the Ummah could destroy all what it had built of pillars, and its biggest fear is that the Ummah to establish the rule of Islam and declare Khilafah "Caliphate", and this is what worries America. Therefore, America is not content with relying on the regime in Pakistan to sort things in Afghanistan, after achieving the "withdrawal" of American soldiers from it, but wants to make India to have an active role in Afghanistan in sorting of those situations; through promoting security cooperation between India and Afghanistan and its dependence more on India in terms of security after the withdrawal of US and Western forces from there. The Christian Science Monitor published on 01/06/2014 a report on India-Afghanistan relations saying that, "When Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai attended the inauguration ceremony of India's new prime minister, Narendra Modi, last week he brought an impressive wish list including battle tanks, field guns, trucks and military helicopters". The newspaper added, "Karzai's requests coincides with a growing debate within Indian government and military circles whether New Delhi would ramp up its military aid to Kabul or not..." The paper adds, "India shares traditionally warm ties with Afghanistan. After shunning Afghanistan during the Taliban regime, India became a friend and a strategic partner". Therefore, India in the era of the American loyal, Modi, will play an active role in terms of security in Afghanistan in favor of the American loyal regime there.
4. With regard to China, its influence has increased over the past two decades, where it worked to strengthen itself in the region. The United States is working to curb China through countries that surround it, such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India. That is why the United States has various alliances and partnerships in order to contain China and occupy it with those states on its borders. America saw India in the subcontinent as a suitable state to confront China, because of its previous enmity with China about various border disputes.
Thus, America wants India to be used effectively to increase pressure on China in order to curb it and prevent it from dominating the surrounding areas and keep it confined to its territory and occupied with India and the protection of its borders. Therefore America announced its plan two years ago that relates to the Asia-Pacific region. Part of this policy was the mobilization of about 60% of its naval force to counter China in the region and the establishment of alliances with countries in the region to mobilize them beside it and direct them to act against China. Among these countries was India, so it worked on directing it towards the east area in the Pacific; specifically in the area of the South China Sea and tempted it by the presence of energy sources of oil and gas. However, the Government of India, led by the Congress Party did not respond much with America in this trend. This, despite the fact that America put all its weight in order to attract Congress Party-led India, where it sent its Vice President Joseph Biden, as well as Secretary of State John Kerry in the middle of last year for this purpose. It also prompted Australia to establish a partnership with India, and pressed Pakistan to make concessions to India including the withdrawal of its troops from the border area with India so that India can move its troops and concerns around the border with China. George W. Bush had visited India in March 2006 at the time of the Congress party, and signed many agreements supportive of India, including in the field of development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as the Obama visit to India in November 2010; all to influence the ruling Congress Party in India and to tempt it towards US policy. However, America has not been able to influence it to make it march within the American policy in the region or to be an effective partner besides it in the implementation of its policy. This is due to the loyalty of India's Congress party to the English, and its criticism of US policy. The statement of the party in the 2005 elections clearly indicates this, in which it came: "It is sad that a great country like India has declined to the level of having a relationship of adherence to the United States of America, where the government of the United States of America considers the adherence of India a given. This has led to the BJP government being prepared to adapt to the priorities and policies of the United States of America without due consideration to India's vital foreign policy and national security interests."
Thus, America did not succeed in convincing the Congress Party in the implementation of America's policy towards China. In addition to that, the United States has failed to make the Indian military leadership focus on developing its army away from Pakistan, and its concentration towards China. Thus the Indian army is focused on internal stability, Kashmir and its borders with Pakistan. With seven of the India's nine armies in addition to three brigades are deployed along the border with Pakistan. Besides, 80% of the front main bases are directed against Pakistan.
Having the BJP win the election in May 2014 - the party that has always been loyal to the United States since the time of Vajpayee in the nineties- it had given another chance for America to put India in confrontation with China. As the greatest obstacle to make India confront China is the presence of the Congress party in power. This obstacle has now disappeared, so it has become easier for America to convince the BJP, which is loyal to it, to concentrate the Indian army on the borders of China instead of the border with Pakistan. Particularly that the United States ensure the Janata Party that Pakistani leadership will focus the Pakistani Army towards northern areas and reduce its numbers and ordnance on the Indian border, due to the subordination of the military and political leadership in Pakistan to the US requirements...! Also it is worth noting that, the Pakistani army is organized primarily into 13 corps, nine of them are deployed near the Indian border. Since Musharraf and Kayani, the military operations in the Northern regions and the Swat area led to the transfer of some of these corps away from the Indian border.
In January 2013, General Kayani announced the strategic principle of the country. Accordingly, the military situation has been modified, and has determined that the internal threats are the greatest threat to the security of the country and not India. Consequently, Pakistan transferred the center of its attention from the borders of India to the northern areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. However, this step from Pakistan was not met by a similar step from India, rather it continued to see Pakistan as a major threat to it, and was reluctant to move its troops completely away from the border with Pakistan.
On the whole, now that the regimes in India and Pakistan have come to implement US policy, America will continue to occupy Pakistan with the issue of Afghanistan and the Northern areas, and then there will be no justification for the major presence of the Indian military on the border with Pakistan, and will allow India to focus on confronting China. For this reason, the United States will provide military equipment to India through security deals, and with the presence of BJP now in power, a party that is for a long time wanted to play the role of policeman of the subcontinent, it will continue proceeding along this path. It is expected that America to present to India economic transactions such as investment in Indian companies, and the transfer of technology to help the economy of India. It is likely that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will highlight its military expansion by seeking energy in the South China Seas.
America is interested in promoting strategic cooperation to curb China and neutralize its activity by putting it under control. The emergence of India as a rival to China, and in particular that the BJP had won the election with majority votes, which enables it to be a single party in power, this facilitates the way for America to move India towards China, particularly in the following areas:
a. Stirring the issue of the independence of Tibet, and the dispute taking place between China and India on the border of Ladakh region.
b. Trade routes; that is the security aspect of the trade routes passing through the China Sea, which constitute 50% of the international shipping.
All these create problems that will occupy China in solving them; hence they confine it in the surrounding areas in accordance with the planned US policy towards China. It seems that America has succeeded in moving Modi toward China. Thus, Modi has appointed former commander of the Army P. K. Singh, a federal minister for the Northeastern area to reform the national security there, which Modi says that it became weak under the previous government, as well as to deal with China. Singh told reporters after assuming charge in his new post last Thursday, "The development of the North East will be my extreme priority." It is expected that Singh may bring back attention to India's plan to create a force of 80 thousand troops along the border with China in the North-East.
Thus, the United States is proceeding with its plan to move India towards China after securing the borders of India on the Pakistani side, where it orders the Pakistani leadership to direct the Pakistani army to the border with Afghanistan and the Northern regions to enter into a fight with its Muslim brothers. Rather than to draw the attention of the military to lift the captivity of Kashmir and liberate it as obliged by Allah and made it a duty on Muslims not to allow the enemies of Allah to have authority over any of the Muslim countries.
((وَلَنْ يَجْعَلَ اللَّهُ لِلْكَافِرِينَ عَلَى الْمُؤْمِنِينَ سَبِيلًا))
"And never will Allah give the disbelievers over the believers a way [to overcome them]." [An-Nisa: 41].
America in its crimes, plots and violation of the States, have surpassed notorious colonists ... It is for the sake of its own colonial interests, it has no qualms about any crime and conspiracy. It conspires against China openly, and conspires against India in a covert way, so it perceives that standing in the face of China by land and sea is in the interest of India and tempts it with aid and strategic agreements, but all that would harm India in the end since China is stronger financially and ideologically.... However, China and India have nothing in common to gather them, thus for them to fight is not odd. But what is strange is that both regimes in Pakistan and Afghanistan are implementing US policy which requires the Muslims in Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight each other... and the most surprising that these two oppressor regimes are still authoritative on people's necks! The duty of this Ummah that Allah glorified them with Islam is to adhere and rule by Islam, and to remove these regimes, and re-establish the Islamic state, the rightly guided Khilafah "Caliphate". So it tramples America and its plots, and return Afghanistan and Pakistan, and all Muslim countries servants of Allah as one brotherhood,
[وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ]
"And that day the believers will rejoice * In the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." [Ar-Rum: 4-5]