بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
International and Local National Angles of the Conflict in Ethiopia
[The UN Security Council failed on Friday to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Ethiopian Tigray region. (FRANCE 24 / AFP 20/11/2021)]. About a year ago, the Ethiopian army had managed to eliminate the rebellion of the Tigray Liberation Front and impose its control over the entire region, then the Tigray Liberation Front returned with force and extended its control over the region and began to expand outside it, threatening to reach the capital, Addis Ababa. Are these events local and the result of an internal national conflict, or are they fueled by the international conflict?
In order for the answer to become clear, it is necessary to study the international and local national angles of the conflict in Ethiopia, and their impact on the events:
First: International angles:
1- From an international angle, Ethiopia was under direct Italian occupation until it was expelled from the country with the help of the English in 1941. With the reinstatement of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1941, Ethiopia became under British influence. When America was able, through left-wing socialist calls, to overthrow Britain’s influence with the coup of left-wing officers in 1974, Ethiopia fell under American influence. After a conflict between the coup officers, the rule was stabilized in Ethiopia in 1977 under the leadership of the officer Mengistu Haile Mariam, and so many opportunities were closed to the return of the British influence. So, the rule in Ethiopia remained linked to America until now, despite the change of rulers.
2- The Tigray region in Ethiopia is considered a landlocked region, as it is surrounded by Eritrea and Sudan from the north and west, and the rest of the Ethiopian states, which belong to the state, from other sides. Therefore, providing any major military support to the rebels in this region can only be through America’s agents, whether that is within Ethiopia itself, or through Sudan or Eritrea, and this means that European countries, even if they possess the political will, are unable to provide significant military support to the rebellious region. In addition, the leaders of the Tigray Liberation Front, who oppose the central government in Addis Ababa, are not far from having a direct relationship with America. If we exclude some European political support for the rebellious region and some European statements criticizing the Ethiopian army's control of the region in 2020, the conflict between the central government and the Tigray Liberation Front is devoid of any valuable European dimension.
3- As for the issue of the Renaissance Dam, with which Ethiopia has emerged on the regional and international scene in recent years, it is a matter related to Egypt and Sudan, and their rulers are agents of America, and the fact that Abdullah Hamdok, the isolated Prime Minister of Sudan, is considered an agent of the British and Europeans, does not change this reality. The actual centers of power in Sudan are still under the hands of America, meaning that the new agents of the British and Europeans in Sudan are unable to intervene in the Ethiopian Tigray region for the benefit of the British and Europeans, as they are struggling in the hope that they will get some share in ruling Sudan. As for the Jewish entity, it incites the Ethiopian government behind the scenes to continue building and operating the Renaissance Dam in order to form weaknesses and conflicts that keeps Egypt preoccupied. However, the Jewish entity cannot transcend American policy, when pursuing this, meaning that the conflict over the issue of the Renaissance Dam is largely controlled by America and is managed according to its interests.
Second: The local national angles
1- Ethiopia is considered a backward country in terms of intellectual and other aspects. Despite the rule of the left-wing officers from 1974 until 1991, no ideology was disseminated in Ethiopia despite the fanfare of socialism. These socialists were American agents, like Abdel Nassir in Egypt. Although official estimates state that the majority are Christians, however, unofficial statistics estimate the proportion of Muslims in Ethiopia at about 60% (Al-Jazeera Center for Studies, 15/4/2015). Because of the international trends to give Ethiopia the Christian character, the influence of Islam in those countries is very small and remains under the surface, meaning that the country is free of any thought that strengthens unity among its people.
2- Because it is devoid of active thought, tribalism and the nationalistic outlook remain dominant over all aspects of the political life, including the state, parties, formations, entities and alliances. Thus, tribalism and the nationalistic outlook are the broad door to political influence in Ethiopia, from which tribal conflicts, national wars and border disputes between regions emerge. According to the national view, the Oromia state, which embraces the capital, Addis Ababa, is the home of the largest Ethiopian nationalities, Oromo, who make up about 40% of Ethiopia's population, then comes the Amhara state and nationality by 20%, followed by the Somali nationality in the Ogaden region by 6%, followed by the Tigray region and nationality, which bears the same name, by 5%, in addition to dozens of other smaller nationalities.
3- In addition to the border disputes, the individual ruler is seen as the head of the national hegemony in the country. For example, the British agent, Emperor Haile Selassie, and the American agent, Mengistu Haile Mariam, were of the Amhara nationality. During their long rule, the Amharic culture was imposed on the country and Amharic was imposed as the official language of the state, although Addis Ababa itself is located in Oromia, and the Muslim-majority Oromo nationality suffer marginalization throughout the modern history of Ethiopia. Due to national differences and the Christian view of Ethiopia, the Tigrayan nationalism has dominated the government since 1991 when Meles Zenawi ruled Ethiopia until his death in 2012, although they are a national minority in Ethiopia. The Tigrayans’ control continued after the appointment of Vice-President of Zenawi as Prime Minister Desalegn, despite him being from another small nationality. Thus, the Tigrayans continued to control the joints of the state in the army and security services. After the widespread Oromo protests around Addis Ababa, which erupted in 2015 and continued until Desalegn’s resignation in 2018, Abiy Ahmed was appointed as the first Prime Minister of modern Ethiopia from the Oromo nationality.
4- Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed proceeded to remove the Tigrayans from the joints of the state. In June 2018, he dismissed the chief of staff of the army and the director of the National Intelligence and Security Service, both of whom are Tigrayans. The Tigray Liberation Front viewed this as a national targeting, especially since the Tigrayans have kept these vital positions since 1991. But what is strange is that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not work for the benefit of his marginalized nationalism throughout history. He became allied with the Amhara nationality, and perhaps being an Oromo from a Muslim father and an Amharic Christian mother, and married to an Amharic Christian, formed in him a national identity inclined towards the Amhara, so Oromos (his nationality) soon sensed this trend and allied against him with the Tigray Liberation Front.
Third: By examining these international and local angles, we find that the national and ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia are the origin of local events, while the major powers with influence exploit and direct this according to their policies and interests. This is how the Ethiopian conflicts were throughout modern history, and if we go years back, we would find that the emergence of Tigray nationality has been since the establishment of the Tigray Liberation Front in 1975 and after about 15 years, the leader of the Tigray Liberation Front, Meles Zenawi, took control of all power in Ethiopia in 1991. Then he began making constitutional amendments to guarantee the right of the Tigrayans to secede from Ethiopia if matters in Addis Ababa was turned against the Tigrayans, and thus Article 39 was founded of the 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia, according to which any of the people of Ethiopia hold the right to self-determination and unconditional secession. But the Tigrayans did not need this article of the constitution as long as they dominated the state, that hegemony was eliminated by Abiy Ahmed’s control of power in Addis Ababa, when the government of Abiy Ahmed postponed the parliamentary elections that were scheduled to be held in August 2020 under the pretext of the spread of the Coronavirus, the Tigray Liberation Front rejected this measure and conducted the elections in Tigray unilaterally. So, the Tigray region appeared in the position of a rebel on the path of secession from the state. Because of the separatist tendencies of the Tigray Liberation Front and its taking of the camps of the central Ethiopian army in the region, and because the central government originally refused the single elections in the Tigray region, war broke out between the rebellious region and the central government on 4/11/2020, and the Ethiopian army was able within a short period of time to control the entirety of the region, and its capital, Mekele, with the help of the Eritrean army, and the Tigray Liberation Front moved to the mountains.
Fourth: But the central government in Addis Ababa began to retreat months later unexpectedly. The beginning was announcing the withdrawal of Eritrea, after Addis Ababa denied the presence of the Eritrean army in Tigray [Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Friday that the Eritrean forces will withdraw from Tigray region North of his country. (France 24, 26/3/2021)], then it was announced that the Ethiopian army itself had withdrawn from the region, [and the Ethiopian Foreign Minister had announced the government’s withdrawal from Tigray, stressing that it was a political decision, adding: “We are no longer responsible for what is happening today in Tigray.” (Al-Masry Al-Youm, 30/6/2021)], also according to the same previous source, (Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that “our exit from Tigray makes us give the people of Tigray an opportunity to think carefully about things.”)
Abiy Ahmed continued, "We have spent about 100 billion birr in Tigray, which is equivalent to more than 13 times our annual budget for the region, but from now on, we do not want to continue this useless spending.") The withdrawal of the Ethiopian army was despite the overwhelming victory of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s party in the parliamentary elections on 10/7/2021, which he considered a great popular support for his army’s campaign against Tigray. To justify the withdrawal of the army after the absolute victory over the Tigray Liberation Front, the Addis Ababa government took the excuse that the priority is protecting the Renaissance Dam after some clashes with the Sudanese army took place to gain control at the border strip of Al-Fashaga Triangle. (Al-Quds Al-Arabi, 2/7/2021).
Fifth: Taking a closer look, we find that the originally weak Ethiopian army could not have occupied the rebellious region in late 2020 so easily had it not been for America’s support for it, and the evidence of this American support is the participation of the Eritrean army with the Ethiopian army in the battles of the region. The President of Eritrea Isaias Afwerki is an old American agent. Upon scrutiny, we also find that America was the one who allowed the Eritrean army to leave Tigray after the Addis Ababa government did not recognize its participation in the battles on its side. Then the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Minister in Ethiopia all refer to the Ethiopian army’s voluntary withdrawal from the region, and clearing the way for the Tigray Liberation Front again, and this cannot happen without a request from America.
Sixth: By examining what happened and is happening in Ethiopia, it becomes clear that the American plans for Ethiopia and the entire Horn of Africa have changed, and to clarify this:
1- When America supported Abiy Ahmed’s government and entrusted it with Saudi Arabia, and Ibn Salman’s contacts with him first assumed his ability to impose stability in Ethiopia, then it became clear to it that he was unable to do so, and perhaps the alliance of the Oromia Liberation Army with the Tigray Liberation Front to overthrow the Addis Ababa government is a clear indication that Abiy Ahmed failed even to attract the nationality to which he belongs. This is on the one hand, and on the other hand, the previous Trump administration, which provided support for the Ethiopian army’s campaign against Tigray at the end of 2020 and ensured the defeat of the Tigray Liberation Front with the participation of the army of its agent, the President of Eritrea in the battles, this administration was looking with one eye, that of the Jewish entity, which sees the dedication of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to its plans for the Renaissance Dam, which constitutes a major and strategic threat to Egypt. Thus, the Trump administration, for electoral reasons and in identification with the Jewish entity, has supported Abiy Ahmed’s plans in Ethiopia to re-impose its control over the Tigray region at the end 2020.
2- When the Biden administration succeeded Trump, the American plans for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa changed, and the American policy now is to lead Ethiopia towards disintegration, and this explains why the Biden administration allowed the Eritrean army to be expelled from Tigray, and then the Ethiopian army to be removed from the region, in the sense of putting the region on the path of secession from Ethiopia. Following the statements of American officials about the events in Ethiopia, we find that America’s eye is completely open to the dismantling of Ethiopia, so you will find them talking a lot about “Ethiopian territorial integrity” even though the Tigray Liberation Front and other groups that allied with it do not mention this publicly! This American direction to dismantle Ethiopia confirms the following:
a- What is actually happening is by American planning, as 9 factions allied themselves with the Tigray Front against the central government, and one of the allies was the Oromia Liberation Army, which threatens the capital itself, and the alliance of these factions was held in the US capitol, Washington DC, (a coalition composed of nine anti-government factions to the Ethiopian government said on Friday, 5/11/2021 that it aims to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whether by force or negotiations and to form a transitional government,..., and the leaders of the factions in Washington announced the alliance despite calls from African and Western leaders for a cease-fire in the war between the central government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front and its allies, Deutsche Welle, Germany, 5/11/2021), and it appears from this declaration from Washington that America is sponsoring these separatist forces and is working to weaken Abyi Ahmed's government.
B- The American magazine Foreign Affairs published a lengthy article on the war in Ethiopia in which it said: (Even if it was possible to stop the fighting and wars, the absence of a unified identity for the country and the severe disagreements over who should rule and how to continue, make it difficult for Ethiopia to survive disintegration. It added that without a convincing and widely shared vision for the Ethiopian state, Abiy Ahmed will not be able to prevent the forces of disintegration from rising at the expense of the forces of unification and cohesion (Al-Jazeera Net, 11/6/2021)).
Seventh: In conclusion, it is America that seeks to weaken the central government of Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa, and it is paving the way for the successive victories of the Tigrayan rebels and other rebels of the Ethiopian regions. This is taking place according to its plan that was adopted by the Biden administration to break up Ethiopia and divide it into states. This division may not happen in the short term, but this is the current American plan according to the course of events, and it is the same American plan for Sudan, according to which the south was separated from it. This shows the high level of criminal mentality of the American policy, and that of the other international colonial powers that do not care about spilling blood for the sake of implementing their policies and achieve their interests, especially since it is the weak people who pay the price, and in Ethiopia, Muslims are often the first to pay the price, especially the people of Oromia, which is home to the capital, Addis Ababa, who are one of the most marginalized people of Ethiopia. The various Ethiopian forces agree with their masters, the colonial kaffir countries that Muslims do not have a share of the rule in Ethiopia and they agree to continue the Christian face of Ethiopia and prevent Islam from surfacing on the political arena in Ethiopia, despite the large proportion of Muslims in this country.
Africa has represented a model for Western criminality, as happened in the massacres in Rwanda and others. Usually, Muslims are the first victims of those wars, and no one will be able to stand in the face of these brutal international forces except the Islamic State, the Khilafah (Caliphate) State, which spreads guidance among people to replace the rotten tribalism and nationalism; it will expose the crimes of those major countries, making them an example for others, and then the world will proclaim the saying of Al-Qawi Al-Aziz:
[وَقُلْ جَاءَ الْحَقُّ وَزَهَقَ الْبَاطِلُ إِنَّ الْبَاطِلَ كَانَ زَهُوقاً]
“And say, "Truth has come, and falsehood has departed. Indeed is falsehood, [by nature], ever bound to depart."” [Al-Isra: 81].
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