Question: On Sunday, 15th January, 2012, i.e yesterday, Mohammed Ali Khateebi, Iran's envoy to the OPEC warned the Gulf states against compensating for Iran's oil by supplying additional crude oil to the markets in case sanctions are imposed on Iran by the European Union. And as reported by the Iranian Sharq newspaper, Khateebi also warned that such compensatory supplies will evoke Iran's reaction which can not be predicted now.
On the same day, the spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Petroleum, Ramin Mehmanparast reiterated his remarks reported by Iran's official news agency confirming that the United States had sent a letter to Iran about the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier on 28th December 2011, Iran had warned of closing the Hormuz waterway in reaction to international sanctions on her. Iran had also announced holding naval exercises in the region. It also said that it had carried out successful tests on missiles of various types and ranges.
So, is Iran serious about closing the Hormuz Strait? Is it genuinely worried about a real war against it, if so who thinks is waging war? Does the current global situation allow such a war now?
Answer: To answer this question, let us present the following:
1. Mohammed Ridha Rahimi, the Iranian Vice-President had warned of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and said: "If sanctions are decided against Iran, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz." [IRNA: 27.12.2011]. Gen. Hussain Salami, the Lt. Commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened that Iran will act to protect its vital interests. Iran conducted naval exercises on 31st Dec., 2011 in the region to demonstrate its preparedness for war if the sanctions were imposed upon her. Iran's Chief of Naval Forces, Admiral Habibullah Sayyari meanwhile eased the tone of threats and said: "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy, or, as Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water, however, at the moment we do not need to close it down." (Press TV, December 28, 2011). Thus he indicated that Iran will not move to close the strait at present if the sanctions are not imposed on it and if it is not attacked, and not simply imposing the sanctions.
2. Reports indicate that between 30% and 40% of the international oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz which is 50 kms wide and 20 to 30 oil tankers pass through it daily carrying about 19 million barrels of crude oil. Thus the Hormuz Strait has been strategically important historically, and has also been a contention between the rival European colonialists. During the era of Great Britain, it regarded the Hormuz as the main route to India which it considered as the jewel of its crown. England had imposed its control over the Strait of Hormuz when Iran and other Gulf states were under its area of influence. During the 1970's when the modern era began when the US influence replaced Britain's sway over the region. The US then regarded the region as part of its national security and stationed its fifth fleet command in Bahrain under the cover of a joint agreement with it in 1993. Its ships sail back and forth through the waterway of Hormuz and thus it will not be easy for Iran to close down the strait except with tacit American's nod against the Europeans. During its war with Saddam Hussain of Iraq, Iran had warned of closing the straits but did not act on its threat. Similarly now, after all the warnings, its naval commander has toned down the threats and mentioned above.
3. In the face of Iran‘s threats, Victoria Noland, the US State Department spokeswoman stated: "We have seen lately a great deal of unreasonable behaviour from Iran which makes us believe that "these threats from Tehran as just increasing evidence that the international pressure is beginning to bite there..." she said. [al Arabiyah: 30.12.2011]. Thus the US wants to prove that the sanctions already placed on Iran are sufficient to rein in the Jews from acting on their threats of military action against Iran. The US has over the past several years restrained the Jewish entity from venturing any attack on Iran. Americans have more than once stated that the sanctions imposed on Iran are enough to deter Iran on its nuclear program. Hence the US State Dept. Spokeswoman said, " These threats from Tehran as just increasing evidence that the international pressure is beginning to bite there." The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has been repeating his statements for months now that the sanctions are sufficient to deter Iran from developing its nuclear program and that the sanctions are the only option. In its attempt to retain the matter under its control, the US asked the Jewish entity to desist from carrying out any attack against Iran coordinating with it.
4. It appears that the US has lately realised the Jewish entity is seriously considering carrying out military attack on Iran's nuclear installations and that Britain is dedicatedly supporting the Jewish entity to carry out such an attack, and this has prompted the US to move and intensify sanctions on Iran including prohibiting dealings with the Iranian Central Bank which was announced by a US official on 13th January 2012, who said that new US restrictions were imposed on Iran last month in order to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program by thus paralyzing the functioning of its Central Bank and making its work with other international banks difficult. Thus the United States is trying to demonstrate that the solution lies in sanctions and intensifying those sanctions, and thus prevent the Jewish entity from undertaking military attack on Iran as well as prevent the Europeans, especially Britain, from playing any role in the matter.
5. There are indications that Europe is for such an attack and is not only encouraging the Jewish entity to undertake it but is also supporting it with whatever is necessary. France had launched a satellite over the region in order to spy over Iran and share that intelligence and images Iran's nuclear installations and facilities with the Jewish entity. Germany has supplied the Jewish entity with the latest submarines which can carry missiles, while the Britain militarily cooperates intensively with the Jewish entity on this issue. Britain‘s Secretary of State for Defence Phillips Hammond warned Iran against any attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. The British media on its part regularly works to high-pitch the issue and influence public opinion against Iran. The Guardian newspaper reported on 3rd November 2011 that "Britain's armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran's nuclear enrichment program". The British have intensified their consultations with the Jewish entity in the recent months. The American news agency UPA on November 2, 2011 reported that: "The Britain's Chief of Staff Gen. David Richards paid a secret 3-day visit to Israel, while the Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak visited Britain on the evening of 2nd November, 2011 at a time when Israel's military attack on Iran was being discussed intensively." In the context of a report posted on its website on 10th November 2011, the British newspaper ‘Daily Mail' said that officials of the British government have emphasised that there has been a consensus within the government that Israel will attempt to target Iranian nuclear installation sooner than later. The Israeli media had reported in the beginning of November 2011 that the Zionist Air force carried out an aerial exercise at one of the NATO bases in Italy which included all types of air force formations which possibly may participate in a long term attack.
6. "Israeli" threats on Iran's nuclear installations have mounted during the current month. The American newspaper, Wall Street Journal, reported on 14th January 2012 that Washington was worried about a possible Israeli military attack against the Iranian nuclear installations, and this has prompted US officials' intensified messages expressing their disapproval and warning the Israeli officials about the consequences of such an attack. The newspaper said in the context of a report on the issue that the American President Barak Obama, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and other senior US officials have sent a series of secret messages to the Israeli leadership warning them of the dire repercussions of a possible attack. They have also informed them about the US stance which is in favour of giving more time to the sanctions imposed on Tehran so that they bear fruit and only then deter Iran from producing nuclear weapons.
7. That the United States is focused on the sanctions which will prove effective for Iran and that the military option will not yield the desired results especially in the current year 2012 being the year of American elections. At the same time the Jewish state and the Europeans want to exploit this election year to carry out the attacks on Iran when the US administration is led by Barak Obama who is preoccupied with winning a second term in office and is engaged in wooing the votes of the Jews and others. Hence when such an attack in launched, the US will be in an awkward position and will be forced to support it if launched during the election period. Thus the US will be in position of flux in the region which will provide an opportunity to intervene in Middle East for the Europeans especially England, the old colonialist of the region to play an effective role in the Gulf. Thus, they are working to shake the American stronghold in the region and destabilise the situation within Iran. So they are preparing to acquire some sort of influence in Iran which they lost as a result of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 when their agent Raza Shah Pehlawi fell from power.
8. Thus, the American policy is focused on the sanctions being able to bear fruit and it keeps intensifying these sanctions every time the war cry gets louder, which the Jewish state, backed by the Europeans calls for during the current election year. Perhaps the US has missed the opportunity they had at the end of the last calendar year when news was leaked that the end of last year was the expected time for such an attack. [al.mashhad.com/News:10th November 2011]. It reported, "An unidentified British Foreign Office official revealed that he informed the British ministers that the Israeli attack may occur at Christmas-eve or by New Year 2012." That however does not rule out fresh attempts by Europe and the Jewish entity to shuffle cards in the US administration due to the election-year situation. It is expected that the United States will not allow them to exploit this opportunity and will remain in control of the matter. Thus every time the Europeans appear to support the Jewish entity to carry out a military attack against Iran during the election year and thus embarrass Obama in front of Jewish voters, Obama steps up and acts on intensifying sanctions indicating to the Jews that this is the correct solution and not a military attack on Iran! Thus Obama indicates to them that he is working in their interest by intensifying the sanctions in order to gain their votes.
9. As for Iran's statement that they will have to bear the responsibility of compensating the shortfall in crude supplies as a result of sanctions against Iranian oil exports; Iran is issuing such statements threatening to close the Hormuz straits in order to precipitate a crisis in the crude market which will result in higher prices and thus affect Europe especially when it is already reeling under an economic crisis...so that it will not persist in supporting the Jewish entity in taking military action against Iran.
10. As for Obama's letter to the Iranian officials the contents of which though are not revealed, it is likely to be a ‘warning' to Iran and demanding it to soften the tone of its threats to close the Hormuz straits as well as easing the tone of warning to the Gulf States that they bear the consequences of compensating the shortfall in oil supplies. This is intended to reduce the tension that provokes the Jewish state and the Europeans to exploit it for taking military action against Iran in this election year. In the past few days, there have been indications that the U.S. and Iran, however, have taken steps in recent days apparently designed to ease tensions. Iran has agreed to host a delegation of United Nations nuclear inspectors this month. The U.S., meanwhile, has twice this month rescued Iranian sailors in the region's seas. [The Wall Street Journal 14.01.2012].
11. It hurts to see that the Gulf region's land, sea and the Strait of Hormuz as part of America's security among its vital and strategic interest even though it is purely an Islamic region. The Gulf referred to as the Arabian or Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman similarly is Islamic, and the Hormuz Straits are Islamic. The Muslims have defended and protected all of these in the face of European attacks be they from Portugal, Holland, France and the Britain...and now the Americans have landed here and are working to control these regions and steal its wealth.
Even more worrying is the fact that this international conflict is able to get its set of rulers in order to achieve its goals. Yet Allah Willing, all this will not last very long and the Ummah as well as the people in Gulf will rise and will become One Ummah under a Single State, the State of the Guided Khilafah "Caliphate", which will cut the ties of these Western countries and prevent them from extending to any part of the Muslim lands. Be reminded that this tomorrow is not far!
In Conclusion:
1. Europe, especially Britain and the Jewish entity want to capitalize on Obama's election race in the United States to launch a military attack on Iran's nuclear installations since during an election year, such an attack will embarrass Obama in the face of Jewish voters if he seeks to stop the attack.
2. Iran is important for Obama and he does not want a military action against it except until Iran crosses the US's redline of the Hormuz Straits as stated by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on 8th January 2012. At the same time, the Jewish entity is also important for Obama who does not want to lose the Jewish votes. This is why he is trying to demonstrate that the sanctions are the appropriate option to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a matter that concerns the Jewish state, and shows them that a military strike will not help but contrarily harm the entire region and thus affect the US and global interests.
Therefore, whenever a military strike appeared imminent, Obama set about tightening the sanctions and now he has even covered the Iranian Central Bank stressing that the sanctions and not military strike is the effective weapon against Iran's nuclear efforts. Such a situation of give-and-take is expected to last at least through the US election year. Europe and the Jewish entity will focus on exploiting this opportunity to carry out a military strike on Iran's nuclear installations, while the United States will focus on demonstrating that intensifying the sanctions is the viable solution, and so on...
3. As for Obama's letter to Iran, though its contents are not public, however it is likely to be a ‘warning' to Iran and demanding it to soften the tone of its threats and statements to close the Hormuz straits as well easing the tone of warning to the Gulf, as a move to remove any justification for military strike.
4. It is painful to see that the Western nations fight over our Islamic lands and find their agents in the region who walk the path with them, instead of these lands being our State, the Khilafah "Caliphate" State which will cut any hand that seeks to reach our pure Islamic lands. However, this betrayal will last long and neither this dark phase will last, indeed Allah Willing, Islam will emerge and so will the Khilafah "Caliphate".
{وَلَتَعْلَمُنَّ نَبَأَهُ بَعْدَ حِينٍ }
"And you shall certainly know the truth of it after a while." [TMQ Saad:88].
